How this instrument works
A burndown chart tracks remaining scope against remaining time, and the whole point of it is the gap between two lines: the ideal burn rate, which is just total points divided evenly across the sprint, and the actual burn rate, which is whatever the team has really achieved so far divided by days actually elapsed. A scrum master or delivery lead reads that gap daily, not to grade anyone, but to catch a slipping sprint while there is still time to descope, add hands, or renegotiate the date.
The projection is the number that turns a chart into a decision: remaining points divided by the actual rate, not the ideal one, tells you how many more days the work needs if nothing changes. That figure is deliberately unforgiving of wishful thinking — it extrapolates from what has actually happened, not what the plan hoped would happen, which is exactly why teams that ignore it get surprised at sprint review.
The formula assumes a constant rate, which real sprints rarely deliver — work tends to land in clumps near a sprint's end rather than a smooth daily trickle. Treat the projection as an early-warning trend line from day three or four onward, not a firm delivery date from day one, when a single early data point can swing it wildly.
- Enter Total story points — the full scope committed for the sprint.
- Set Sprint length, days to the working days in the sprint, and Days elapsed to how far in you are today.
- Enter Points completed so far from your tracking board.
- Compare Ideal burn rate against Actual burn rate to see if the team is ahead, on pace, or behind.
- Check Days needed to finish at current pace against the days actually left in the sprint.
Worked example — day 8 of a 20-day sprint
A team commits to 100 story points over a 20-day sprint. Eight days in, they have closed 35 points. The ideal burn rate is 100 ⁄ 20 = 5.0 points per day, and with 65 points still open, the actual rate so far is 35 ⁄ 8 = 4.375 points per day — already below the pace the plan needs.
Projecting the remaining 65 points at that actual 4.375-per-day rate gives 65 ⁄ 4.375 ≈ 14.9 more days. The sprint only has 12 days left after day 8, so at the current pace the team finishes roughly three days late — a gap worth raising at today's standup rather than at the review, when the only options left are cutting scope or missing the date.
Questions
Why does the projection use the actual rate instead of the ideal rate?
The ideal rate only describes the plan, not the work; it always finishes exactly on the last day by definition. The projection is meant to answer a different question — at the pace this team has actually shown, when does the remaining scope run out — so it has to divide by the actual burn rate, even when that number is uncomfortable.
What does it mean if the actual burn rate is above the ideal rate?
The team is ahead of the plan's even-pace line, and the projected days needed will come in under the days still remaining. This is common late in a sprint when a batch of tickets closes together, or early on if a few small items got knocked out first — it does not guarantee the trend holds for harder tickets still queued.
Why is the burn rate misleading on day one or two of a sprint?
With only a day or two of data, one blocked ticket or one quick win swings the actual rate hard in either direction, because the denominator (days elapsed) is still tiny. The projection stabilizes once several days of real throughput accumulate — treat early-sprint numbers as noise, not a verdict.
Does this account for scope added mid-sprint?
No — total story points is whatever you enter today, and if scope is added or cut after the sprint starts, re-enter the new total to see the chart adjust. The formula itself has no memory of the original commitment; it only reflects the numbers currently in the fields.
What is the difference between this and a velocity calculation?
Velocity looks backward across completed sprints to estimate future capacity for planning. This burndown projection looks forward within the current sprint, using only this sprint's elapsed days and completed points, to answer whether today's sprint specifically is on track to finish.
Who actually uses a burndown projection like this one?
Scrum masters and delivery leads use it daily to decide whether to raise a blocker in standup, pull in help, or start a descope conversation before the sprint review — it is a mid-sprint early-warning check, not a historical report card on the team.
References
- Scrum Guides — The official Scrum Guide (forecasting, burn charts)
- U.S. Small Business Administration — Manage your business finances and operations
Read this first: This instrument shows arithmetic, not advice. Real offers add fees, taxes and terms that vary by lender and place — verify the figures against your actual paperwork before deciding anything.